Homework Assignment Six

Our instructor gave us various topics related to the future. From these topics we have to pick three choices and find websites for these topics. Once we find the websites, we must then critique the sites we found based on their pertinence.

My topcis were:


1)Green Energy Technologies

• a) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/more-efficient-solar-cells-with-carbon- nanotubes/ (This article gave information of using carbon nano-tubes instead of silicon to extract energy more efficiently from the sun.)


• b) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered-toyota-prius/ (This article gave information about possibly using algae as a replacement for gasoline in cars. This seems very possible and extremely eco-friendly because of a lack of harmful byproduct.)


• c) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/human-powered-workout-gym-concept/ (This article had a very creative eco-friendly concept. It is literally a workout gym that is powered by the people who exercise in the gym. This concept could be possible but I do not believe is it as probable as carbon nano-tube and algae based fuel technologies.

2) Homo Homo Sapiens dominance of world population. (I looked at a new form of human evolution. This evolution would be a integration of technology with the human body. This new "species" would eventually replace the Homo Homo Sapien race.)

• a) http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/SmallBiz/story?id=6854658&page=1 (This article gives vague information on the pursuit of Homo Evolutis by Jaun Enriquez, CEO of a biomedical company)


• b) http://hplusbiopolitics.wordpress.com/2009/02/09/homo-evolutis-the-backlash/ (This article talks about backlash Enriquez has experienced because of his definition of human Evolution. This provides a rare and interesting perspective that brings about more questions of Homo Evolutis.)


• c) http://www.oprah.com/article/oprahshow/20090305-tows-oz-live-longer/2 (This article gives detailed information on ways to prolong life with state of the art technology.)

3) Future Internet Speeds

• a) http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2000/03/26/internet-speed.aspx (This article gives information about the highest speeds that researchers are able to achieve now and a new kind of laser that would be available to carry a huge amount of bandwidth for data transfer.)


• b)http://www.editorsweblog.org/multimedia/2008/04/lightning_speed_replacement_%20for_internet.php (This article provides information on new data transfer technology. This new concept is called "the grid". This grid will make internet data transfer faster then we could imagine.)


• c)http://ezinearticles.com/?Satellite-Internet-the-Speed-of-the-Future&id=2786366 (This article gives information on how rural areas will be able to get high speed internet service via satellites.)

There is a second part to our homework. We needed to apply TRIZ to our semester topic. My topic is trans-humanism. Trans-humanism is only on the verge of its emergence. We can use a hearing aid as a prime example. Hearing aids now help people who cannot hear well. One day we will be able to branch out hearing aid capability with the advancement of technology. We could eventually give people who do not need hearing aids better hearing ability. This could play an advantage when hunting (you could hear the game from further distances),etc. We could also make regenerable body parts. This could help a person who has a depletion of certain cells that are pivotal to maintaining a healthy life.

We then had to take ten TRIZ items and apply them to our topic.

Universality: make one thing do more than one thing. Our ears could implanted with a device that could not only make us hear better, but receive wireless signals that our brain could interpret.

Anti-weight: counter heaviness with flotation. We could implant artificial life vests into our body to stay afloat on water.

Preliminary action: do something to an object before it is needed. We could have a sensor that tells us if our heart rate was abnormal.

Partial or excessive action: Do a little too much or too little, then fix. We could make our hands faster for typing purposes by implanting a mechanism in the hand.

Cheap short-lived objects: throw it away afterwards. We could make cheaper prosthetics. Any amputee could have a throw away arm.

Color changes: change color or transparency of object or environment. We could modify the color of our skin to match our environment.

Phase transitions: We could make our skin warm up in cold temperatures or cool down in hot temperatures.

Pneumatics and hydraulics: use gas and liquid instead of solid parts. We could use hydraulics to make us some jump higher.

Self-service: something serves itself. We could program our body to do certain things that our mind might find strenuous. Like mowing the yard.

Continuity of useful action: elimination of break. We could wire our bodies to stay up longer then what our body and mind are used to. For example, we could have someone stay up the entire day so they can monitor a security system.

Homework Assignement Five

This week we talked about Prediction Markets. They are an interesting phenomena that is manifested directly from public speculation. I decided to go with the website our teacher had shown us, http://www.intrade.com/. In Prediction Markets people place bets on the probability of an event occurring. For example, I could invest in a prediction market related to whether or not Obama's new health care system will pass before the end of December 2009. Our teacher gave us the task of analyzing markets that we found appealing and to wager "fake money" on certain predictions.

I was interested in several of the following categories:

1)Surrogates to gross OVER $16.0M in opening weekend.

The current bid is 92.5 percent. I believe this number could grow higher because science fiction movies are a huge industry. Also there has been ample advertisements for the movie. Also there are no other "big movies" debuting at the same time.

2)Osama Bin Laden to be captured/neutralized by 31 Mar 2010.

They are currently asking for 7.0 percent. I believe the number could be lower. They have not find him yet and cannot even confirm what country he is in.

3)Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $3.25 per gallon or more on 30 Nov 2009.

This poll has not been tabulated yet and I believe that the odds will be less then 50% considering the states of the economy.

4)Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011.

They are currently asking for 28.0 percent. I believe the number could grow lower due to its relations with the United States, its lack of political turmoil, and the growing control the United Nations.

5)The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013.The current number is 62.o percent. I believe this value could lower because this building is supposed to be bigger then the world trade center. The WTC is a very large building and would take lots of capitol ( in a stagnant ecnomoy) and lots of man hours.

6) Public Enemies to win the Oscar
The current number is 7.3. I believe the possibility of this occurring is zero. I have seen the movie and do not believe it was up to par with any recent Oscar Winners.

7)Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2010
The asking price is 25.0. I believe this possibility should be lower. They started the LHC for only a few months and it failed. There will be more kinks in the LHC itself. It is an extremely complicated instrument. The repair for any problems can provide long delays because the magnets must be heated up to reasonable temperature for repair. When the LHC is running the magnets are kept at a very cold temperature.

8)Lindsay Lohan bares all for Playboy
This current asking price is 87.0 I believe this price should be much lower. I think people are taking into account her reckless behavior, but I have not heard much tabloid news about her. Perhaps she is finally cleaning up her act.

9)China agrees before end of 2009 to binding target limiting CO2 emissions.
The current asking price is 34%. I believe the money should be much lower. China does not like to abide by other countries regulations. It still uses more coal then any country in the world. This kind of dependence causes a transition to be very slow and tedious.

10)A magnitude 9.0 earthquake to occur anywhere on/before 31 Dec 2009.
The current asking price is 4.8%. I believe this number should be lower. 9.0 magnitude earthquakes are very rare because they are soo strong. I believe there will be some very deadly earthquake between this time but I do not think it will be that strong.

......Surrogates to gross OVER $16.0M in opening weekend.
I believed that 9 out of 10 of my "interesting markets" bids were too high. The prediction market concerning Surrogates gross over the opening weekend was the only price that was not too high. I believed that the possibility will be 100%. 16 Million dollars is not that high considering inflation and the market Sci-Fi movies have. This was the only market I invested in because I believed that all other prediction markets I was interested in were already valued to high. I was given 5000 dollars of play money. I decided to spend about 2000 dollars of my money on this prediction market. I bought 300 "shares" at 85 dollars a piece. The total amount spent was 1980 dollars.

Homework Assignment Four

Homework Assignment 4

Part A)

My questions was referenced to time. I asked everyone to predict when cars will be fully automated. We chose to put emphasis on the median because the mean or average can be skewed by the extremities.

This is the range and median of my fellow classmates guesses before and after the Delphi Method. People could see some ambiguity from my question. To say cars are fully automated is not very specific. People could argue that cars are somewhat automatic now with features like cruise control and automated windows. When I postulated my question I was imagining a car that would open automatically and once you were inside take you to your final destination. I did not specify this in class so many people might have had a hard time knowing what I define as a fully automated car.
If I were to reword my question I would ask the class how long they think it would take for cars to become automatic where no human intervention was needed besides telling the car’s computer what destination you seeked. By not asking the question with this detail I might have gotten skewed results from peoples misinterpretation.

Part B)

I needed to pick a subject for my semester topic. This topic will our be our final project for this class. I have decided to look at transhumanism because of my interest in seeing "homo evolutis" occur. My first course of action is too research about transhumanism. From there I will make predictions and take about the pros and cons of transhumanism.

Homework Assignment Three

We discussed the Delphi method in class. The questions below give a more in depth understanding of the Delphi method.....


1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median).

My questions was referenced to time. I asked everyone to predict when cars will be fully automated. I answered any inquires relating to the ambiguity of my question. We recorded people's predictions. I noted the extremes from the predictions and asked my fellow classmates to elaborate on their answer. Afterwards, we recorded our new or same predictions based on what we had just discussed. This is a graph that shows the total range of statistics taken before and after an iteration of the Delphi Method. We can see that the we could state there was a level of convergence because the values have gotten closer. We chose to put emphasis on the median because the mean or average can be skewed by the extremities.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.


The Delphi method relies on a panel of independent experts. We are definitely not experts in making predictions about the future. For example, you would want a people with extensive knowledge in automobile technology to approximate when cars will be fully automated. We did not have more then one iteration. Our answers were also not anonymous. . Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. Also I did not see people's answers converge like the Delphi Method stated. This could clearly be a result of only doing one iteration.


3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

We could have used more iterations when we discussed different topics using the Delphi method. More iterations could help our answers converge to find one more congruent answer. I noticed a lot of our results did not become more convergent after just one iteration. Convergence can play a vital role in the Delphi Model. Stability can sometimes be a criterion for stopping the Delphi Method. We could have also written our answers down before we heard each others predictions. This could alleviate any bias that some felt after hearing their prediction was not the same as their fellow classmates.

Homework Assignment Two

Our teacher gave us a class lecture on 4 different types of curves. The 4 types consist of linear, exponential, s-shaped, and plateau curves. He stated that he wanted us to make a prediction of the future using one of these curves to describe that prediction. I believe you could use all 4 curves to describe worldwide human population growth from the past to the present, and even to the future.

Human population growth is a very interesting phenomena. When our ancestors evolved into homo sapiens, their population growth was probably somewhat slow and steady. We did not have advanced technology (e.g. methodical ways to fight predators and prevent disease). If were to look at the our population growth, we would probably see a steady linear curve. Now if we were to compare current human population growth with the past, we would see a jagged curve that would resemble an exponential graph.
Perhaps if were to look into the distant future, we would see a s-shaped curve. A s-shaped curve would be a leveling off of the world's population after a long term exponential growth rate. This could be caused by many different phenomena, such as ozone depletion, the Earth reaching is sustainability limit, nuclear, chemical, or biological warfare, etc. After the S-curve our population would eventually become a plateau curve. This curve would represent a "dying off" of the human race. This could be a result of a series of intricate events (e.g. warming of the earth and a new deadly airborne virus) or the initial cause of the human growth rate leveling off. This is of course speculation, but it seems that the advancement of technology and lack of human discipline has shown us more ways to kill ourselves and put us in harms way.
The majority of things that we affect can also be described by these different graphical representations. For example, the amount of light bulbs in use will decrease or increase proportionally to human population. If you want further evidence for the human race going towards a decline, we must look at the previous extinctions. The Earth has shown us that mass extinctions of species have occurred. For example, many scientists have the popularized the theory that dinosaurs became extinct after an asteroid impelled Earth around Mexico . Regardless of the cause, there is substantial proof from fossils that dinosaurs were wiped off the face of the planet. If you have any doubt about the Earth's previous extinctions, you should read the 6th Extinction by Roger Lewin. This book talks about the patterns of extinction and how we could possibly go through a 6th mass extinction.
Thus, it already clear that human growth rate is growing exponentially, but I believe that our race will eventually die off due to some catastrophic event(s). Many other natural phenomena can be observed by these 4 curves, but I firmly believe that human population growth rate is one of the most applicable.



Our teacher asked us to compute the following:


Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.

The doubling time of the software development would be 12 years. In 12 years any arbitrary amount would double.

Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)

The approximate percent increase would be 41% per a year. This would give an amount that is very close to 100% of the double any initial arbitrary value.

Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.

If you have an arbitrary amount of transistors in a PC that have a doubling time of 18 months then you would see a percent increase of approximately 56%.


What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?

It would 35 years for an arbitrary amount of money to double if it is gaining 2% interest.

Homework Assignment One

Our professor had given us a very intriguing homework assignment. He gave us various topics about the future with associated links. The links for these topics are extremely outdated. From these links, we are supposed to find up to date information. We also had the choice of finding our own material on other interesting topics of the future as well.

I knew one very special website could help me in my endeavours. This website harbored hundreds of lectures given from renown artists, philosophers, scientists, engineers, and even our own Bill Clinton. These lectures are given every so often at TED conferences held mostly in Monterrey California. This website is called TED.COM. TED stands for technology, entertainment, and design. I have frequented this website many times, and I have never ceased to be amazed. I have spent many countless hours viewing these lectures. This has given me incite into what the real world literally is and where it is actually going. Thus, when I heard about this assignment I knew I could get tons of information from this website.

I started to read the various topics. First and foremost transhumanism stuck out to me right away. I had previously watched a video on TED.COM that was about this exact subject. A brilliant scientist named Juan Enriquez hypothesized that humans would evolve into a new species. A species that was heavily integrated with machines. He called this new species homo evolutis. These species would be better then modern day man to adapt to their environment. For example, with the improvement of hearing aid technology, humans will probably be able to hear better then we can now. The link for this lecture is: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/juan_enriquez_shares_mindboggling_new_science.html

I was also intrigued with a video I saw on TED.COM that elaborated on the intelligence of crows. This video was very profound. I had never thought crows were special (let alone intelligent). The lecturer, Joshua Klein had a huge interest in this overly abundant bird. He showed that crows adapt to their environment better then many other species through an application he called a "crow vending machine". He also stated that crows were cracking nuts by dropping them on streets so that cars could run over the nuts. They would then eat the material inside the nut. They adapted this process because their beaks were not strong enough to crack the nuts. Also, crows were learning from each other. This phenomena spread and crows have been witnessed performing this act in various locations. You might wonder how this has anything to do with the future, but at the end of this lecture Klein suggests that we can one day have a symbiotic relationship with this species. For example, people could train crows to pick up trash. The link for this lecture is: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/joshua_klein_on_the_intelligence_of_crows.html.

For my final topic, I picked the creation of synthetic life. Craig Venter played a pivotal role in the human genome project. He gave a speech at TED about being on the verge of creating synthetic life. He explained that DNA could be implanted into " blank cells". These cell would synthesize into what ever the DNA's instructions were. One viewer asked Dr. Venter if this synthetic life has any harmful applications, for example creating a "super bug" they could kill all mankind. Craig Venter did acknowledge this possibility, but explained that there were copious amounts of benefits from creating synthetic life. The link for this site is called:
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/craig_venter_is_on_the_verge_of_creating_synthetic_life.html

The First Day of Class

During the first day of class we became oriented with the goal of this course and its content. From looking at the course objective and goals, I have determined that this class was going to be very interesting. I have always liked wondering what if? This class lets us make predictions of the future and learn about new advances in technology and humankind. I have actually recruited two more students to join our class.
We also were "indirectly" introduced to our classmates and asked what we thought would occur in the future. There were many interesting statements. I made the safe assumption that all of the world's people will use or be affected by the internet. I particularly enjoined a fellow classmate's prediction of finding extraterrestrial life.