Our teacher gave us a class lecture on 4 different types of curves. The 4 types consist of linear, exponential, s-shaped, and plateau curves. He stated that he wanted us to make a prediction of the future using one of these curves to describe that prediction. I believe you could use all 4 curves to describe worldwide human population growth from the past to the present, and even to the future.
Human population growth is a very interesting phenomena. When our ancestors evolved into homo sapiens, their population growth was probably somewhat slow and steady. We did not have advanced technology (e.g. methodical ways to fight predators and prevent disease). If were to look at the our population growth, we would probably see a steady linear curve. Now if we were to compare current human population growth with the past, we would see a jagged curve that would resemble an exponential graph.
Perhaps if were to look into the distant future, we would see a s-shaped curve. A s-shaped curve would be a leveling off of the world's population after a long term exponential growth rate. This could be caused by many different phenomena, such as ozone depletion, the Earth reaching is sustainability limit, nuclear, chemical, or biological warfare, etc. After the S-curve our population would eventually become a plateau curve. This curve would represent a "dying off" of the human race. This could be a result of a series of intricate events (e.g. warming of the earth and a new deadly airborne virus) or the initial cause of the human growth rate leveling off. This is of course speculation, but it seems that the advancement of technology and lack of human discipline has shown us more ways to kill ourselves and put us in harms way.
The majority of things that we affect can also be described by these different graphical representations. For example, the amount of light bulbs in use will decrease or increase proportionally to human population. If you want further evidence for the human race going towards a decline, we must look at the previous extinctions. The Earth has shown us that mass extinctions of species have occurred. For example, many scientists have the popularized the theory that dinosaurs became extinct after an asteroid impelled Earth around Mexico . Regardless of the cause, there is substantial proof from fossils that dinosaurs were wiped off the face of the planet. If you have any doubt about the Earth's previous extinctions, you should read the 6th Extinction by Roger Lewin. This book talks about the patterns of extinction and how we could possibly go through a 6th mass extinction.
Thus, it already clear that human growth rate is growing exponentially, but I believe that our race will eventually die off due to some catastrophic event(s). Many other natural phenomena can be observed by these 4 curves, but I firmly believe that human population growth rate is one of the most applicable.
Our teacher asked us to compute the following:
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
The doubling time of the software development would be 12 years. In 12 years any arbitrary amount would double.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
The approximate percent increase would be 41% per a year. This would give an amount that is very close to 100% of the double any initial arbitrary value.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
If you have an arbitrary amount of transistors in a PC that have a doubling time of 18 months then you would see a percent increase of approximately 56%.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
It would 35 years for an arbitrary amount of money to double if it is gaining 2% interest.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Homework Assignment One
Our professor had given us a very intriguing homework assignment. He gave us various topics about the future with associated links. The links for these topics are extremely outdated. From these links, we are supposed to find up to date information. We also had the choice of finding our own material on other interesting topics of the future as well.
I knew one very special website could help me in my endeavours. This website harbored hundreds of lectures given from renown artists, philosophers, scientists, engineers, and even our own Bill Clinton. These lectures are given every so often at TED conferences held mostly in Monterrey California. This website is called TED.COM. TED stands for technology, entertainment, and design. I have frequented this website many times, and I have never ceased to be amazed. I have spent many countless hours viewing these lectures. This has given me incite into what the real world literally is and where it is actually going. Thus, when I heard about this assignment I knew I could get tons of information from this website.
I started to read the various topics. First and foremost transhumanism stuck out to me right away. I had previously watched a video on TED.COM that was about this exact subject. A brilliant scientist named Juan Enriquez hypothesized that humans would evolve into a new species. A species that was heavily integrated with machines. He called this new species homo evolutis. These species would be better then modern day man to adapt to their environment. For example, with the improvement of hearing aid technology, humans will probably be able to hear better then we can now. The link for this lecture is: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/juan_enriquez_shares_mindboggling_new_science.html
I was also intrigued with a video I saw on TED.COM that elaborated on the intelligence of crows. This video was very profound. I had never thought crows were special (let alone intelligent). The lecturer, Joshua Klein had a huge interest in this overly abundant bird. He showed that crows adapt to their environment better then many other species through an application he called a "crow vending machine". He also stated that crows were cracking nuts by dropping them on streets so that cars could run over the nuts. They would then eat the material inside the nut. They adapted this process because their beaks were not strong enough to crack the nuts. Also, crows were learning from each other. This phenomena spread and crows have been witnessed performing this act in various locations. You might wonder how this has anything to do with the future, but at the end of this lecture Klein suggests that we can one day have a symbiotic relationship with this species. For example, people could train crows to pick up trash. The link for this lecture is: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/joshua_klein_on_the_intelligence_of_crows.html.
For my final topic, I picked the creation of synthetic life. Craig Venter played a pivotal role in the human genome project. He gave a speech at TED about being on the verge of creating synthetic life. He explained that DNA could be implanted into " blank cells". These cell would synthesize into what ever the DNA's instructions were. One viewer asked Dr. Venter if this synthetic life has any harmful applications, for example creating a "super bug" they could kill all mankind. Craig Venter did acknowledge this possibility, but explained that there were copious amounts of benefits from creating synthetic life. The link for this site is called:
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/craig_venter_is_on_the_verge_of_creating_synthetic_life.html
I was also intrigued with a video I saw on TED.COM that elaborated on the intelligence of crows. This video was very profound. I had never thought crows were special (let alone intelligent). The lecturer, Joshua Klein had a huge interest in this overly abundant bird. He showed that crows adapt to their environment better then many other species through an application he called a "crow vending machine". He also stated that crows were cracking nuts by dropping them on streets so that cars could run over the nuts. They would then eat the material inside the nut. They adapted this process because their beaks were not strong enough to crack the nuts. Also, crows were learning from each other. This phenomena spread and crows have been witnessed performing this act in various locations. You might wonder how this has anything to do with the future, but at the end of this lecture Klein suggests that we can one day have a symbiotic relationship with this species. For example, people could train crows to pick up trash. The link for this lecture is: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/joshua_klein_on_the_intelligence_of_crows.html.
For my final topic, I picked the creation of synthetic life. Craig Venter played a pivotal role in the human genome project. He gave a speech at TED about being on the verge of creating synthetic life. He explained that DNA could be implanted into " blank cells". These cell would synthesize into what ever the DNA's instructions were. One viewer asked Dr. Venter if this synthetic life has any harmful applications, for example creating a "super bug" they could kill all mankind. Craig Venter did acknowledge this possibility, but explained that there were copious amounts of benefits from creating synthetic life. The link for this site is called:
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/craig_venter_is_on_the_verge_of_creating_synthetic_life.html
The First Day of Class
During the first day of class we became oriented with the goal of this course and its content. From looking at the course objective and goals, I have determined that this class was going to be very interesting. I have always liked wondering what if? This class lets us make predictions of the future and learn about new advances in technology and humankind. I have actually recruited two more students to join our class.
We also were "indirectly" introduced to our classmates and asked what we thought would occur in the future. There were many interesting statements. I made the safe assumption that all of the world's people will use or be affected by the internet. I particularly enjoined a fellow classmate's prediction of finding extraterrestrial life.
We also were "indirectly" introduced to our classmates and asked what we thought would occur in the future. There were many interesting statements. I made the safe assumption that all of the world's people will use or be affected by the internet. I particularly enjoined a fellow classmate's prediction of finding extraterrestrial life.
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