1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median).
My questions was referenced to time. I asked everyone to predict when cars will be fully automated. I answered any inquires relating to the ambiguity of my question. We recorded people's predictions. I noted the extremes from the predictions and asked my fellow classmates to elaborate on their answer. Afterwards, we recorded our new or same predictions based on what we had just discussed. This is a graph that shows the total range of statistics taken before and after an iteration of the Delphi Method. We can see that the we could state there was a level of convergence because the values have gotten closer. We chose to put emphasis on the median because the mean or average can be skewed by the extremities.
2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
The Delphi method relies on a panel of independent experts. We are definitely not experts in making predictions about the future. For example, you would want a people with extensive knowledge in automobile technology to approximate when cars will be fully automated. We did not have more then one iteration. Our answers were also not anonymous. . Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. Also I did not see people's answers converge like the Delphi Method stated. This could clearly be a result of only doing one iteration.
3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
We could have used more iterations when we discussed different topics using the Delphi method. More iterations could help our answers converge to find one more congruent answer. I noticed a lot of our results did not become more convergent after just one iteration. Convergence can play a vital role in the Delphi Model. Stability can sometimes be a criterion for stopping the Delphi Method. We could have also written our answers down before we heard each others predictions. This could alleviate any bias that some felt after hearing their prediction was not the same as their fellow classmates.
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